Boston Legacy W vs Angel City W

Boston Legacy W

Preview

00:00

Angel City W

9/1/2026

NWSL Women · Group StageGillette Stadium

Big match

40%

Boston Legacy W

model favours

40%26%34%

Top-of-the-table clash — Boston Legacy W 4 vs Angel City W 1

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Boston Legacy W40%

×Draw26%

Angel City W34%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boston Legacy WExpected goals in this matchAngel City W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.29

Boston Legacy W

1.43

Angel City W

1.29

Boston Legacy W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 55 away

1.44

creates per match

1.15

1.44

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Boston Legacy W

1.44

Angel City W

1.15

allows per match

Boston Legacy W

1.44

Angel City W

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boston Legacy W+0.00on par

Angel City W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston Legacy W ↓

Angel City W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Boston Legacy W or draw

66%

Boston Legacy W or Angel City W

74%

Draw or Angel City W

60%

Winning margin

Boston Legacy W wins by 2+

19%

Angel City W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Boston Legacy W 1+ goals

76%

Boston Legacy W 2+ goals

42%

Boston Legacy W 3+ goals

17%

Angel City W 1+ goals

72%

Angel City W 2+ goals

37%

Angel City W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Boston Legacy W (draw refunded)

54%

Angel City W (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston Legacy W at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

Angel City W away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston Legacy W attack 1.44 + Angel City W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.43

Angel City W attack 1.15 + Boston Legacy W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Boston Legacy W scores more

40%

level

26%

Angel City W scores more

34%

Boston Legacy W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Boston Legacy W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Angel City W fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.6 expected)
Boston Legacy W and Angel City W have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

W

WWDLL

W

WWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff