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Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 vs Greece U17 — UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification 2022

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
Preview
13:00
Greece U17
Greece U17
9/23/2026UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationUEFA U17 Championship - Qualification · Group Stage - 1
Big match
44%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
model favours
44%23%33%

Top-of-the-table clash — Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 3 vs Greece U17 2

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
66%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Bosnia-Herzegovina U1744%
×Draw23%
Greece U1733%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
1.83
Greece U17
1.57

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 10 away

creates per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
2.56
Greece U17
1.70

allows per match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17
1.44
Greece U17
1.10

finishing

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17+0.00on par
Greece U17+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 ↓

Greece U17 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 or draw
67%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 or Greece U17
77%
Draw or Greece U17
56%

Winning margin

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 wins by 2+
24%
Greece U17 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 1+ goals
84%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 2+ goals
54%
Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 3+ goals
28%
Greece U17 1+ goals
79%
Greece U17 2+ goals
46%
Greece U17 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 (draw refunded)
57%
Greece U17 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Greece U17 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 attack 2.56 + Greece U17 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.83

Greece U17 attack 1.70 + Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 scores more
44%
level
23%
Greece U17 scores more
33%

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 and Greece U17 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U17
LWD
U17
WWLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 face Greece U17 (UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification)

UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification returns with Bosnia-Herzegovina U17 hosting Greece U17. Match starts September 23, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.