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Borislav 2009 vs Maritsa Plovdiv — Third League - Southeast 2018

Borislav 2009
Borislav 2009
FT
0 – 1
Maritsa Plovdiv
Maritsa Plovdiv
9/22/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 7Stadion Borislav (Parvomay)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Borislav 200936%
×Draw25%
Maritsa Plovdiv39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borislav 2009
1.38
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 81 away

creates per match

Borislav 2009
1.59
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.59

allows per match

Borislav 2009
1.29
Maritsa Plovdiv
1.16

finishing

Borislav 2009+0.00on par
Maritsa Plovdiv+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borislav 2009 ↓

Maritsa Plovdiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Borislav 2009 or draw
61%
Borislav 2009 or Maritsa Plovdiv
75%
Draw or Maritsa Plovdiv
64%

Winning margin

Borislav 2009 wins by 2+
16%
Maritsa Plovdiv wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Borislav 2009 1+ goals
75%
Borislav 2009 2+ goals
40%
Borislav 2009 3+ goals
16%
Maritsa Plovdiv 1+ goals
76%
Maritsa Plovdiv 2+ goals
42%
Maritsa Plovdiv 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Borislav 2009 (draw refunded)
48%
Maritsa Plovdiv (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borislav 2009 at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

Maritsa Plovdiv away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borislav 2009 attack 1.59 + Maritsa Plovdiv defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.38

Maritsa Plovdiv attack 1.59 + Borislav 2009 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Borislav 2009 scores more
36%
level
25%
Maritsa Plovdiv scores more
39%

Maritsa Plovdiv at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Maritsa Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borislav 2009 vs Maritsa Plovdiv

Maritsa Plovdiv beat Borislav 2009 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Borislav (Parvomay).