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Boreham Wood vs Sutton Utd — League #43 2026

Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood
Preview
19:00
Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
12/9/2026League #43League #43 · Round 22Meadow Park
Big match
38%
Sutton Utd
model favours
34%28%38%

Both teams score in 100% of Boreham Wood’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Boreham Wood34%
×Draw28%
Sutton Utd38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boreham Wood
1.17
Sutton Utd
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 45 away

creates per match

Boreham Wood
1.15
Sutton Utd
1.24

allows per match

Boreham Wood
1.25
Sutton Utd
1.20

finishing

Boreham Wood+0.00on par
Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boreham Wood ↓

Sutton Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Boreham Wood or draw
62%
Boreham Wood or Sutton Utd
72%
Draw or Sutton Utd
66%

Winning margin

Boreham Wood wins by 2+
14%
Sutton Utd wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Boreham Wood 1+ goals
69%
Boreham Wood 2+ goals
33%
Boreham Wood 3+ goals
11%
Sutton Utd 1+ goals
71%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
36%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Boreham Wood (draw refunded)
47%
Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boreham Wood at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boreham Wood attack 1.15 + Sutton Utd defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sutton Utd attack 1.24 + Boreham Wood defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Boreham Wood scores more
34%
level
28%
Sutton Utd scores more
38%

Sutton Utd at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Boreham Wood have scored in 11 games running
  • Boreham Wood are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Boreham Wood score first in only 25% of matches
  • Sutton Utd score first in only 26% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (75% and 61% over 2.5)
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Boreham Wood 3 vs Sutton Utd 2

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Wood
WDWWW
Utd
DLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Boreham Wood face Sutton Utd (League #43)

League #43 returns with Boreham Wood hosting Sutton Utd. Match starts December 9, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Boreham Wood host Sutton Utd at Meadow Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.