Boreham Wood 0–4 Sutton Utd: Result & Stats

Boreham Wood

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Sutton Utd

C. Eastmond 73', 68'

N. Bailey 45' (pen)

J. Collins 32' (pen)

12/26/2017

League #43 · Round 31Meadow Park (Borehamwood, Hertfordshire)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Boreham Wood34%

×Draw28%

Sutton Utd38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boreham WoodExpected goals in this matchSutton Utd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.25

Boreham Wood

1.17

Sutton Utd

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 45 away

1.15

creates per match

1.24

1.25

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Boreham Wood

1.15

Sutton Utd

1.24

allows per match

Boreham Wood

1.25

Sutton Utd

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boreham Wood+0.00on par

Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boreham Wood ↓

Sutton Utd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Boreham Wood or draw

62%

Boreham Wood or Sutton Utd

72%

Draw or Sutton Utd

66%

Winning margin

Boreham Wood wins by 2+

14%

Sutton Utd wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Boreham Wood 1+ goals

69%

Boreham Wood 2+ goals

33%

Boreham Wood 3+ goals

11%

Sutton Utd 1+ goals

71%

Sutton Utd 2+ goals

36%

Sutton Utd 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Boreham Wood (draw refunded)

47%

Sutton Utd (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boreham Wood at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boreham Wood attack 1.15 + Sutton Utd defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sutton Utd attack 1.24 + Boreham Wood defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Boreham Wood scores more

34%

level

28%

Sutton Utd scores more

38%

Sutton Utd at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

J. CollinsPenalty

45'

N. BaileyPenalty

59'

A. Jarvis← Á. Balanta

59'

B. Turgott← S. Jeffers

63'

A. Coombes← T. Wright

68'

C. Eastmond

72'

D. Spence← K. Davis

73'

C. Eastmond

78'

N. Chesmain← Bruno Andrade

79'

J. Taylor← C. Eastmond

Boreham

Sutton

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: L. Garrard

59'▲A. Jarvis←▼Á. Balanta

59'▲B. Turgott←▼S. Jeffers

78'▲N. Chesmain←▼Bruno Andrade

Boreham Wood substitutes

JarvisTurgottChesmainBurbidgeJohnson

Manager: P. Doswell

63'▲A. Coombes←▼T. Wright

72'▲D. Spence←▼K. Davis

79'▲J. Taylor←▼C. Eastmond

Sutton Utd substitutes

CoombesSpenceTaylorCadoganLafayette