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Boreham Wood vs Dagenham & Redbridge — League #43 2026

Boreham Wood
Boreham Wood
CANC
15:00
Dagenham & Redbridge
Dagenham & Redbridge
3/28/2020League #43League #43 · Round 49Meadow Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Boreham Wood29%
×Draw28%
Dagenham & Redbridge43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boreham Wood
0.99
Dagenham & Redbridge
1.29

Dagenham & Redbridge creates 30% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

Boreham Wood
1.15
Dagenham & Redbridge
1.33

allows per match

Boreham Wood
1.25
Dagenham & Redbridge
0.83

finishing

Boreham Wood+0.00on par
Dagenham & Redbridge+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boreham Wood ↓

Dagenham & Redbridge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Boreham Wood or draw
57%
Boreham Wood or Dagenham & Redbridge
72%
Draw or Dagenham & Redbridge
71%

Winning margin

Boreham Wood wins by 2+
10%
Dagenham & Redbridge wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Boreham Wood 1+ goals
63%
Boreham Wood 2+ goals
26%
Boreham Wood 3+ goals
8%
Dagenham & Redbridge 1+ goals
72%
Dagenham & Redbridge 2+ goals
37%
Dagenham & Redbridge 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Boreham Wood (draw refunded)
40%
Dagenham & Redbridge (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boreham Wood at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.25 · 20 matches

Dagenham & Redbridge away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boreham Wood attack 1.15 + Dagenham & Redbridge defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.99

Dagenham & Redbridge attack 1.33 + Boreham Wood defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Boreham Wood scores more
29%
level
28%
Dagenham & Redbridge scores more
43%

Dagenham & Redbridge at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Dagenham & Redbridge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Boreham Wood vs Dagenham & Redbridge — Match Preview

Boreham Wood face Dagenham & Redbridge on March 28, 2020 in this League #43 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Boreham Wood host Dagenham & Redbridge at Meadow Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.