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Bordj Bou Arreridj vs ES Setif — Ligue 1 2018

Bordj Bou Arreridj
Bordj Bou Arreridj
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
ES Setif
ES Setif
11/5/2018Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 13Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bordj Bou Arréridj)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bordj Bou Arreridj41%
×Draw29%
ES Setif30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bordj Bou Arreridj
1.18
ES Setif
0.97

Bordj Bou Arreridj creates 22% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 122 away

creates per match

Bordj Bou Arreridj
1.09
ES Setif
0.89

allows per match

Bordj Bou Arreridj
1.04
ES Setif
1.27

finishing

Bordj Bou Arreridj+0.00on par
ES Setif+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordj Bou Arreridj ↓

ES Setif →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bordj Bou Arreridj or draw
70%
Bordj Bou Arreridj or ES Setif
71%
Draw or ES Setif
59%

Winning margin

Bordj Bou Arreridj wins by 2+
17%
ES Setif wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bordj Bou Arreridj 1+ goals
69%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 2+ goals
33%
Bordj Bou Arreridj 3+ goals
12%
ES Setif 1+ goals
62%
ES Setif 2+ goals
25%
ES Setif 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bordj Bou Arreridj (draw refunded)
58%
ES Setif (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordj Bou Arreridj at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

ES Setif away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.27 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordj Bou Arreridj attack 1.09 + ES Setif defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.18

ES Setif attack 0.89 + Bordj Bou Arreridj defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bordj Bou Arreridj scores more
41%
level
29%
ES Setif scores more
30%

Bordj Bou Arreridj at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bordj Bou Arreridj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bordj Bou Arreridj 1 – 2 ES Setif

ES Setif beat Bordj Bou Arreridj 2-1 in Ligue 1 on November 5, 2018.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bordj Bou Arréridj).