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Bordeaux W vs Paris Saint Germain W — Feminine Division 1 2018

Bordeaux W
Bordeaux W
CANC
14:00
Paris Saint Germain W
Paris Saint Germain W
5/16/2020Feminine Division 1Feminine Division 1 · Round 21Stade Jean-Pierre Delhomme

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Bordeaux W25%
×Draw22%
Paris Saint Germain W53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bordeaux W
1.29
Paris Saint Germain W
1.97

Paris Saint Germain W creates 53% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 86 away

creates per match

Bordeaux W
1.76
Paris Saint Germain W
2.62

allows per match

Bordeaux W
1.32
Paris Saint Germain W
0.81

finishing

Bordeaux W+0.00on par
Paris Saint Germain W+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bordeaux W ↓

Paris Saint Germain W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bordeaux W or draw
47%
Bordeaux W or Paris Saint Germain W
78%
Draw or Paris Saint Germain W
75%

Winning margin

Bordeaux W wins by 2+
10%
Paris Saint Germain W wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Bordeaux W 1+ goals
72%
Bordeaux W 2+ goals
37%
Bordeaux W 3+ goals
14%
Paris Saint Germain W 1+ goals
86%
Paris Saint Germain W 2+ goals
58%
Paris Saint Germain W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Bordeaux W (draw refunded)
32%
Paris Saint Germain W (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bordeaux W at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.32 · 63 matches

Paris Saint Germain W away — creates 2.62, concedes 0.81 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bordeaux W attack 1.76 + Paris Saint Germain W defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.29

Paris Saint Germain W attack 2.62 + Bordeaux W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bordeaux W scores more
25%
level
22%
Paris Saint Germain W scores more
53%

Paris Saint Germain W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Paris Saint Germain W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bordeaux W host Paris Saint Germain W

May 16, 2020: Bordeaux W take on Paris Saint Germain W in Feminine Division 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bordeaux W host Paris Saint Germain W at Stade Jean-Pierre Delhomme.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.