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Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Civil Service Strollers — League #731 2026

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
Preview
15:00
Civil Service Strollers
Civil Service Strollers
1/2/2027League #731League #731 · Regular SeasonNew Dundas Park
47%
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
model favours
47%22%31%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic and Civil Service Strollers have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic47%
×Draw22%
Civil Service Strollers31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
1.88
Civil Service Strollers
1.50

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic creates 25% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
2.25
Civil Service Strollers
2.00

allows per match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
1.00
Civil Service Strollers
1.50

finishing

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic+0.00on par
Civil Service Strollers+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic ↓

Civil Service Strollers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic or draw
69%
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic or Civil Service Strollers
78%
Draw or Civil Service Strollers
53%

Winning margin

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic wins by 2+
26%
Civil Service Strollers wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 1+ goals
85%
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 2+ goals
56%
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic 3+ goals
29%
Civil Service Strollers 1+ goals
78%
Civil Service Strollers 2+ goals
44%
Civil Service Strollers 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic (draw refunded)
60%
Civil Service Strollers (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Civil Service Strollers away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic attack 2.25 + Civil Service Strollers defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Civil Service Strollers attack 2.00 + Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic scores more
47%
level
22%
Civil Service Strollers scores more
31%

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Athletic
DLWWW
Strollers
DLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic face Civil Service Strollers (League #731)

League #731 returns with Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic hosting Civil Service Strollers. Match starts January 2, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic host Civil Service Strollers at New Dundas Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.