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Bóng đá Huế vs Phú Thọ — V.League 2 2020

Bóng đá Huế
Bóng đá Huế
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Phú Thọ
Phú Thọ
7/10/2022V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 6Sân vận động Tự Do

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Bóng đá Huế51%
×Draw27%
Phú Thọ22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bóng đá Huế
1.41
Phú Thọ
0.81

Bóng đá Huế creates 74% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 33 away

creates per match

Bóng đá Huế
1.06
Phú Thọ
0.73

allows per match

Bóng đá Huế
0.90
Phú Thọ
1.76

finishing

Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par
Phú Thọ+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bóng đá Huế ↓

Phú Thọ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bóng đá Huế or draw
78%
Bóng đá Huế or Phú Thọ
73%
Draw or Phú Thọ
49%

Winning margin

Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+
25%
Phú Thọ wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals
76%
Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals
41%
Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals
17%
Phú Thọ 1+ goals
56%
Phú Thọ 2+ goals
19%
Phú Thọ 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)
70%
Phú Thọ (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bóng đá Huế at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Phú Thọ away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bóng đá Huế attack 1.06 + Phú Thọ defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.41

Phú Thọ attack 0.73 + Bóng đá Huế defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bóng đá Huế scores more
51%
level
27%
Phú Thọ scores more
22%

Bóng đá Huế at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bóng đá Huế will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bóng đá Huế vs Phú Thọ

Bóng đá Huế beat Phú Thọ 1-0 in V.League 2 on July 10, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Tự Do in Hue.