Bóng đá Huế 0–1 Bình Phước: Result & Stats

Bóng đá Huế

FT

0 – 1

Bình Phước

T. Le Quyen Huy 84'

9/30/2020

V.League 2 · Round 11Sân vận động Tự Do

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bóng đá Huế38%

×Draw30%

Bình Phước32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bóng đá HuếExpected goals in this matchBình Phước

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.01

Bóng đá Huế

1.13

Bình Phước

1.01

Bóng đá Huế creates 12% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 62 away

1.06

creates per match

1.11

0.90

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Bóng đá Huế

1.06

Bình Phước

1.11

allows per match

Bóng đá Huế

0.90

Bình Phước

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bóng đá Huế+0.00on par

Bình Phước+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bóng đá Huế ↓

Bình Phước →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Bóng đá Huế or draw

68%

Bóng đá Huế or Bình Phước

70%

Draw or Bình Phước

62%

Winning margin

Bóng đá Huế wins by 2+

16%

Bình Phước wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bóng đá Huế 1+ goals

68%

Bóng đá Huế 2+ goals

31%

Bóng đá Huế 3+ goals

11%

Bình Phước 1+ goals

64%

Bình Phước 2+ goals

27%

Bình Phước 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Bóng đá Huế (draw refunded)

54%

Bình Phước (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bóng đá Huế at home — creates 1.06, concedes 0.90 · 51 matches

Bình Phước away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.19 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bóng đá Huế attack 1.06 + Bình Phước defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.13

Bình Phước attack 1.11 + Bóng đá Huế defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bóng đá Huế scores more

38%

level

30%

Bình Phước scores more

32%

Bóng đá Huế at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bóng đá Huế will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

84'

T. Le Quyen Huy

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff