Bombada 0–1 BST Galaxy: Result & Stats | GFA League

Bombada

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

BST Galaxy

1/6/2024

GFA League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bombada42%

×Draw29%

BST Galaxy29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BombadaExpected goals in this matchBST Galaxy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.93

Bombada

1.19

BST Galaxy

0.93

Bombada creates 28% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

1.36

creates per match

1.04

0.82

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Bombada

1.36

BST Galaxy

1.04

allows per match

Bombada

0.82

BST Galaxy

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bombada+0.00on par

BST Galaxy+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bombada ↓

BST Galaxy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bombada or draw

71%

Bombada or BST Galaxy

71%

Draw or BST Galaxy

58%

Winning margin

Bombada wins by 2+

18%

BST Galaxy wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Bombada 1+ goals

70%

Bombada 2+ goals

33%

Bombada 3+ goals

12%

BST Galaxy 1+ goals

61%

BST Galaxy 2+ goals

24%

BST Galaxy 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bombada (draw refunded)

59%

BST Galaxy (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bombada at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.82 · 45 matches

BST Galaxy away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bombada attack 1.36 + BST Galaxy defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.19

BST Galaxy attack 1.04 + Bombada defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bombada scores more

42%

level

29%

BST Galaxy scores more

29%

Bombada at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bombada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff