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Boluspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. — 1. Lig 2018

Boluspor
Boluspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
10/27/20181. Lig1. Lig · Round 10Bolu Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Boluspor38%
×Draw27%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boluspor
1.27
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 89 away

creates per match

Boluspor
1.28
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.26

allows per match

Boluspor
1.12
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.25

finishing

Boluspor+0.00on par
Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boluspor ↓

Gençlerbirliği S.K. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Boluspor or draw
66%
Boluspor or Gençlerbirliği S.K.
73%
Draw or Gençlerbirliği S.K.
62%

Winning margin

Boluspor wins by 2+
17%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Boluspor 1+ goals
72%
Boluspor 2+ goals
36%
Boluspor 3+ goals
14%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals
70%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals
33%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Boluspor (draw refunded)
53%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boluspor at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.12 · 147 matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K. away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boluspor attack 1.28 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.26 + Boluspor defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Boluspor scores more
38%
level
27%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more
34%

Boluspor at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Boluspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Lig: Boluspor 0–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat Boluspor 1-0 in 1. Lig on October 27, 2018.

The match was played at Bolu Atatürk Stadyumu in Bolu.