Boluspor 0–2 Erzurumspor FK: Result & Stats

Boluspor

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Erzurumspor FK

4/16/2022

1. Lig · Round 32Bolu Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Boluspor37%

×Draw28%

Erzurumspor FK35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolusporExpected goals in this matchErzurumspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.14

Boluspor

1.17

Erzurumspor FK

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 147 home / 110 away

1.28

creates per match

1.16

1.12

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Boluspor

1.28

Erzurumspor FK

1.16

allows per match

Boluspor

1.12

Erzurumspor FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boluspor+0.00on par

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boluspor ↓

Erzurumspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Boluspor or draw

65%

Boluspor or Erzurumspor FK

72%

Draw or Erzurumspor FK

63%

Winning margin

Boluspor wins by 2+

15%

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Boluspor 1+ goals

69%

Boluspor 2+ goals

33%

Boluspor 3+ goals

11%

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

68%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

32%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Boluspor (draw refunded)

51%

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boluspor at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.12 · 147 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boluspor attack 1.28 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.17

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.16 + Boluspor defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Boluspor scores more

37%

level

28%

Erzurumspor FK scores more

35%

Boluspor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Boluspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff