Bolton 1–1 Reading: Result & Stats | Championship

Bolton

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Reading

J. Hobbs 90+2'

Nélson Oliveira 74' (pen)

1/29/2019

Championship · Round 29University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Bolton40%

×Draw27%

Reading33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchReading

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.19

Bolton

1.32

Reading

1.19

Bolton creates 11% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 112 away

1.16

creates per match

0.99

1.39

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Bolton

1.16

Reading

0.99

allows per match

Bolton

1.39

Reading

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

Reading+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Reading →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

67%

Bolton or Reading

73%

Draw or Reading

60%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

18%

Reading wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

73%

Bolton 2+ goals

38%

Bolton 3+ goals

15%

Reading 1+ goals

70%

Reading 2+ goals

33%

Reading 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

54%

Reading (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.39 · 57 matches

Reading away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.49 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.16 + Reading defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.32

Reading attack 0.99 + Bolton defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bolton scores more

40%

level

27%

Reading scores more

33%

Bolton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

Nélson Oliveira

Reading · F

8.2

Match Events

35'

53'

58'

60'

61'

G. McCleary← C. Gunter

63'

John Swift

67'

W. Buckley← C. Noone

72'

J. Pritchard← L. Connell

74'

Nélson OliveiraPenalty

79'

J. Magennis← P. Olkowski

83'

T. Blackett← J. Swift

90'

D. Loader← Nélson Oliveira

90+2'

J. Hobbs↳ S. Ameobi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoltonReading

Overview

35%Possession65%

13Total Shots16

3Corners2

12Fouls11

Shots

13Total Shots16

6On Target7

6Off Target6

1Blocked3

6Inside Box10

7Outside Box6

Passing

35%Possession65%

340Total Passes630

254Accurate Passes542

75%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

5Saves5

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides2