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Bolton vs Portsmouth — Championship 2024

Bolton
Bolton
Preview
15:00
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
11/21/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 16Toughsheet Community Stadium
Big match
40%
Bolton
model favours
40%24%35%
1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Bolton40%
×Draw24%
Portsmouth35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.55
Portsmouth
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 52 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.14
Portsmouth
1.12

allows per match

Bolton
1.76
Portsmouth
1.96

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Portsmouth+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
65%
Bolton or Portsmouth
76%
Draw or Portsmouth
60%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
20%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
79%
Bolton 2+ goals
46%
Bolton 3+ goals
20%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
76%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
42%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
53%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.76 · 21 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.96 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.14 + Portsmouth defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.55

Portsmouth attack 1.12 + Bolton defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bolton scores more
40%
level
24%
Portsmouth scores more
35%

Bolton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bolton
Direct / counter-attacking
Portsmouth
Balanced
38%Possession49%
64%Pass accuracy73%
9.5ShotsBiggest gap12.3
—xG1.14
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BoltonPortsmouth

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Bolton
1
Draws
2
Portsmouth
Avg goals: 2.4BTTS: 40%
1–10–21–33–01–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bolton
WWWWL
Portsmouth
LWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bolton face Portsmouth (Championship)

Championship returns with Bolton hosting Portsmouth. Match starts November 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bolton host Portsmouth at Toughsheet Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.