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Bolton vs Lincoln — League One 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lincoln
Lincoln
J. Böðvarsson 84'
D. Charles 40' (pen)
10/1/2022League OneLeague One · Round 12University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Bolton40%
×Draw25%
Lincoln35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.49
Lincoln
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 8 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.85
Lincoln
1.38

allows per match

Bolton
1.38
Lincoln
1.13

finishing

Bolton+0.46scores more
Lincoln+0.25scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Lincoln →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
65%
Bolton or Lincoln
75%
Draw or Lincoln
60%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
19%
Lincoln wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
77%
Bolton 2+ goals
44%
Bolton 3+ goals
19%
Lincoln 1+ goals
75%
Lincoln 2+ goals
40%
Lincoln 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
53%
Lincoln (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Lincoln away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.85 + Lincoln defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.49

Lincoln attack 1.38 + Bolton defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bolton scores more
40%
level
25%
Lincoln scores more
35%

Bolton at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
G. JohnstonBoltonBolton · D
7.9

Match Events

39'
Adam Jackson
40'
D. CharlesPenalty
48'
Jordan Williams
50'
George Johnston
50'
Ben House
65'
M. Sanders← L. Sørensen
65'
D. Mândroiu← J. Garrick
68'
K. Dempsey← K. Lee
73'
J. Böðvarsson← E. Kachunga
78'
T. Oakley-Boothe← B. House
82'
O. Afolayan← D. Charles
84'
J. Böðvarsson↳ O. Afolayan
90+4'
James Trafford

Possession

62%Bolton

Shots

9Bolton

Pass accuracy

55%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonLincoln
Overview
62%Possession38%
9Total Shots7
6Corners5
9Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots7
5On Target2
2Off Target3
2Blocked2
7Inside Box6
2Outside Box1
Passing
62%Possession38%
552Total Passes340
447Accurate Passes228
81%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
5Offsides1

League One: Bolton 2–0 Lincoln

Bolton beat Lincoln 2-0 in League One on October 1, 2022.

Goals: D. Charles (40' pen), J. Böðvarsson (84').

Bolton controlled possession (62%) and registered 9 shots to 7.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Bolton.