Bolton 2–0 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Bolton

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leyton Orient

E. Doyle 69'

J. Brophy 67' (OG)

1/30/2021

League Two · Round 27University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bolton38%

×Draw29%

Leyton Orient33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoltonExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.08

Bolton

1.19

Leyton Orient

1.08

Bolton creates 10% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 94 away

1.17

creates per match

1.17

1.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Bolton

1.17

Leyton Orient

1.17

allows per match

Bolton

1.00

Leyton Orient

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Bolton or draw

67%

Bolton or Leyton Orient

71%

Draw or Leyton Orient

62%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+

16%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals

70%

Bolton 2+ goals

33%

Bolton 3+ goals

12%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

66%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

29%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)

54%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.20 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.17 + Leyton Orient defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.19

Leyton Orient attack 1.17 + Bolton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bolton scores more

38%

level

29%

Leyton Orient scores more

33%

Bolton at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

Ricardo

Bolton · D

7.9

Match Events

60'

J. Widdowson← D. Kemp

67'

J. BrophyOwn goal

69'

E. Doyle↳ A. Gnahoua

76'

N. Freeman← H. Kyprianou

79'

D. John← B. Jackson

79'

Z. Elbouzedi← L. Isgrove

80'

J. Dayton← C. Clay

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BoltonLeyton

Overview

41%Possession59%

18Total Shots10

8Corners3

12Fouls5

Shots

18Total Shots10

4On Target1

5Off Target6

9Blocked3

15Inside Box5

3Outside Box5

Passing

41%Possession59%

304Total Passes446

201Accurate Passes348

66%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls5