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Bolton vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Bolton
Bolton
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
E. Doyle 86'
A. May 54'
1/16/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 24University of Bolton Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Bolton42%
×Draw28%
Cheltenham30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.27
Cheltenham
1.03

Bolton creates 23% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 95 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.17
Cheltenham
1.06

allows per match

Bolton
1.00
Cheltenham
1.38

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
70%
Bolton or Cheltenham
72%
Draw or Cheltenham
58%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
19%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
72%
Bolton 2+ goals
36%
Bolton 3+ goals
14%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
64%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
28%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
58%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 23 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.38 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.17 + Cheltenham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Cheltenham attack 1.06 + Bolton defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bolton scores more
42%
level
28%
Cheltenham scores more
30%

Bolton at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bolton will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
L. IsgroveBoltonBolton · F
7.6

Match Events

46'
A. Tutte← K. Lee
54'
A. May
62'
A. Gnahoua← Z. Elbouzedi
63'
H. Brockbank← G. Jones
67'
A. Crawford← G. Thomason
78'
Lloyd Isgrove
83'
S. Long← L. Freestone
83'
G. Lloyd← A. Williams
86'
E. Doyle↳ A. Gnahoua
90+1'
A. Addai← A. May

Possession

64%Bolton

Shots

15Bolton

Pass accuracy

56%Bolton

Statistics

BoltonCheltenham
Overview
64%Possession36%
15Total Shots8
6Corners4
8Fouls10
Shots
15Total Shots8
5On Target4
8Off Target2
2Blocked2
7Inside Box4
8Outside Box4
Passing
64%Possession36%
576Total Passes322
466Accurate Passes206
81%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls10
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Bolton vs Cheltenham

Bolton and Cheltenham drew 1-1 in League Two on January 16, 2021.

Goals: A. May (54'), E. Doyle (86').

Bolton controlled possession (64%) and registered 15 shots to 8.

The match was played at University of Bolton Stadium in Bolton.