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Bolton vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Bolton
Bolton
Preview
11:30
Cardiff
Cardiff
9/12/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 7Toughsheet Community Stadium
Big match
38%
Cardiff
model favours
36%26%38%
1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Bolton36%
×Draw26%
Cardiff38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolton
1.32
Cardiff
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 60 away

creates per match

Bolton
1.09
Cardiff
1.03

allows per match

Bolton
1.73
Cardiff
1.55

finishing

Bolton+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolton ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Bolton or draw
62%
Bolton or Cardiff
74%
Draw or Cardiff
64%

Winning margin

Bolton wins by 2+
16%
Cardiff wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bolton 1+ goals
73%
Bolton 2+ goals
38%
Bolton 3+ goals
15%
Cardiff 1+ goals
75%
Cardiff 2+ goals
40%
Cardiff 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Bolton (draw refunded)
48%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolton at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.55 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolton attack 1.09 + Cardiff defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cardiff attack 1.03 + Bolton defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bolton scores more
36%
level
26%
Cardiff scores more
38%

Cardiff at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cardiff will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Bolton
WWWWL
Cardiff
WLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bolton vs Cardiff — Match Preview

Bolton face Cardiff on September 12, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bolton host Cardiff at Toughsheet Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.