Bologna 1–1 Udinese: Result & Stats | Serie A

Bologna

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Udinese

Rodrigo Palacio 90'

Stefano Okaka 33'

2/22/2020

Serie A · Round 25Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Bologna45%

×Draw26%

Udinese28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolognaExpected goals in this matchUdinese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.08

Bologna

1.44

Udinese

1.08

Bologna creates 33% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 32 away

1.30

creates per match

1.05

1.11

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Bologna

1.30

Udinese

1.05

allows per match

Bologna

1.11

Udinese

1.57

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Bologna-0.13scores less

Udinese+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna ↓

Udinese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bologna or draw

72%

Bologna or Udinese

74%

Draw or Udinese

55%

Winning margin

Bologna wins by 2+

22%

Udinese wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bologna 1+ goals

76%

Bologna 2+ goals

42%

Bologna 3+ goals

18%

Udinese 1+ goals

66%

Udinese 2+ goals

29%

Udinese 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bologna (draw refunded)

62%

Udinese (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.11 · 29 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.57 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna attack 1.30 + Udinese defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Udinese attack 1.05 + Bologna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bologna scores more

45%

level

26%

Udinese scores more

28%

Bologna at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bologna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Mattia Bani

Bologna · D

7.8

Match Events

33'

Stefano Okaka↳ Rodrigo De Paul

37'

Marvin Zeegelaar← Ken Sema

51'

Ibrahima Mbaye

51'

Rodrigo De Paul

59'

Andri Fannar Baldursson← Andreas Skov Olsen

63'

Walace← Seko Fofana

81'

Mato Jajalo← Kevin Lasagna

82'

Musa Juwara← Andrea Poli

84'

Stefano Okaka

90'

Rodrigo Palacio↳ Takehiro Tomiyasu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BolognaUdinese

Overview

60%Possession40%

15Total Shots7

7Corners5

13Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots7

3On Target2

10Off Target1

2Blocked4

9Inside Box5

6Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

539Total Passes363

440Accurate Passes271

82%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

13Fouls12

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides4