Bologna 2–1 Udinese: Result & Stats | Serie A

Bologna

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Udinese

R. Orsolini 82'

F. Santander 42'

I. Pussetto 32'

9/30/2018

Serie A · Round 7Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Bologna45%

×Draw26%

Udinese28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolognaExpected goals in this matchUdinese

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.08

Bologna

1.44

Udinese

1.08

Bologna creates 33% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 32 away

1.30

creates per match

1.05

1.11

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Bologna

1.30

Udinese

1.05

allows per match

Bologna

1.11

Udinese

1.57

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Bologna-0.13scores less

Udinese+0.17scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna ↓

Udinese →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Bologna or draw

72%

Bologna or Udinese

74%

Draw or Udinese

55%

Winning margin

Bologna wins by 2+

22%

Udinese wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Bologna 1+ goals

76%

Bologna 2+ goals

42%

Bologna 3+ goals

18%

Udinese 1+ goals

66%

Udinese 2+ goals

29%

Udinese 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bologna (draw refunded)

62%

Udinese (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.11 · 29 matches

Udinese away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.57 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna attack 1.30 + Udinese defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Udinese attack 1.05 + Bologna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bologna scores more

45%

level

26%

Udinese scores more

28%

Bologna at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bologna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

R. de Paul

Udinese · M

8.2

Match Events

32'

I. Pussetto↳ R. de Paul

42'

F. Santander↳ M. Svanberg

47'

Mattias Svanberg

54'

Ignacio Pussetto

57'

M. D'Alessandro← I. Pussetto

58'

Ádám Nagy

62'

M. Dijks← L. Krejčí

64'

Ł. Teodorczyk← K. Lasagna

69'

Rodrigo De Paul

72'

Valon Behrami

75'

O. Okwonkwo← D. Falcinelli

79'

R. Orsolini← M. Svanberg

82'

R. Orsolini↳ F. Mattiello

84'

D. Machís← V. Behrami

90'

Darwin Machís

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BolognaUdinese

Overview

45%Possession55%

21Total Shots14

3Corners4

7Fouls12

Shots

21Total Shots14

6On Target2

8Off Target7

7Blocked5

8Inside Box4

13Outside Box10

Passing

45%Possession55%

376Total Passes456

307Accurate Passes396

82%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Bologna vs Udinese

Bologna beat Udinese 2-1 in Serie A on September 30, 2018.

Goals: I. Pussetto (32'), F. Santander (42'), R. Orsolini (82').

Udinese controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 21.

The match was played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna.

Bologna vs Udinese — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bologna vs Udinese