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Bologna vs Lazio — Serie A 2018

Bologna
Bologna
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lazio
Lazio
10/3/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 7Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Bologna40%
×Draw28%
Lazio32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bologna
1.27
Lazio
1.10

Bologna creates 15% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

creates per match

Bologna
1.27
Lazio
1.08

allows per match

Bologna
1.13
Lazio
1.26

finishing

Bologna-0.12scores less
Lazio-0.04on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bologna or draw
68%
Bologna or Lazio
72%
Draw or Lazio
60%

Winning margin

Bologna wins by 2+
18%
Lazio wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bologna 1+ goals
72%
Bologna 2+ goals
36%
Bologna 3+ goals
14%
Lazio 1+ goals
67%
Lazio 2+ goals
30%
Lazio 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bologna (draw refunded)
56%
Lazio (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.13 · 27 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna attack 1.27 + Lazio defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lazio attack 1.08 + Bologna defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bologna scores more
40%
level
28%
Lazio scores more
32%

Bologna at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bologna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Bologna 3–0 Lazio

Bologna beat Lazio 3-0 in Serie A on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna.