Bologna 2–2 Lazio: Result & Stats | Serie A

Bologna

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Lazio

Rodrigo Palacio 31'

Ladislav Krejčí 21'

Ciro Immobile 39', 23'

10/6/2019

Serie A · Round 7Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 28+ matches

Bologna41%

×Draw27%

Lazio31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolognaExpected goals in this matchLazio

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.10

Bologna

1.31

Lazio

1.10

Bologna creates 19% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 28 away

1.30

creates per match

1.09

1.11

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Bologna

1.30

Lazio

1.09

allows per match

Bologna

1.11

Lazio

1.31

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Bologna-0.13scores less

Lazio-0.05on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna ↓

Lazio →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bologna or draw

69%

Bologna or Lazio

73%

Draw or Lazio

59%

Winning margin

Bologna wins by 2+

19%

Lazio wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Bologna 1+ goals

73%

Bologna 2+ goals

38%

Bologna 3+ goals

14%

Lazio 1+ goals

67%

Lazio 2+ goals

30%

Lazio 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bologna (draw refunded)

57%

Lazio (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.11 · 29 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.31 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna attack 1.30 + Lazio defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

Lazio attack 1.09 + Bologna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bologna scores more

41%

level

27%

Lazio scores more

31%

Bologna at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bologna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Ciro Immobile

Lazio · F

8.4

Match Events

20'

Luiz Felipe

21'

Ladislav Krejčí↳ Riccardo Orsolini

23'

Ciro Immobile↳ Senad Lulić

27'

Ladislav Krejčí

31'

Rodrigo Palacio

39'

Ciro Immobile↳ Luis Alberto

51'

59'

59'

61'

61'

Marco Parolo← Ciro Immobile

63'

Danilo

63'

Nicola Sansone

70'

Gary Medel

72'

Jerdy Schouten← Mattias Svanberg

75'

Mattia Bani

79'

Senad Lulić

81'

Jony← Senad Lulić

82'

Andreas Skov Olsen← Riccardo Orsolini

86'

Federico Santander← Nicola Sansone

88'

Joaquín CorreaMissed penalty

89'

Rodrigo Palacio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BolognaLazio

Overview

52%Possession48%

18Total Shots12

5Corners4

13Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots12

8On Target4

8Off Target4

2Blocked4

9Inside Box7

9Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

430Total Passes389

351Accurate Passes298

82%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

13Fouls16

5Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Bologna vs Lazio

Bologna and Lazio drew 2-2 in Serie A on October 6, 2019.

Goals: Ladislav Krejčí (21'), Ciro Immobile (23', 39'), Rodrigo Palacio (31').

Bologna controlled possession (52%) and registered 18 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna.

Bologna vs Lazio — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bologna vs Lazio