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Bologna vs Lazio — Serie A 2026

Bologna
Bologna
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lazio
Lazio
S. Lulić 89'
Luiz Felipe 30'
12/26/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 18Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 29+ matches

Bologna40%
×Draw27%
Lazio32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bologna
1.29
Lazio
1.13

Bologna creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 29 away

creates per match

Bologna
1.30
Lazio
1.15

allows per match

Bologna
1.11
Lazio
1.29

finishing

Bologna-0.13scores less
Lazio-0.05on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bologna or draw
68%
Bologna or Lazio
73%
Draw or Lazio
60%

Winning margin

Bologna wins by 2+
18%
Lazio wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bologna 1+ goals
72%
Bologna 2+ goals
37%
Bologna 3+ goals
14%
Lazio 1+ goals
68%
Lazio 2+ goals
31%
Lazio 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bologna (draw refunded)
55%
Lazio (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.11 · 29 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.29 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna attack 1.30 + Lazio defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Lazio attack 1.15 + Bologna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bologna scores more
40%
level
27%
Lazio scores more
32%

Bologna at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bologna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
Luiz FelipeLazioLazio · D
9.0

Match Events

30'
Luiz Felipe↳ Luis Alberto
45'
Arturo Calabresi
61'
R. Orsolini← F. Mattiello
61'
C. Immobile← F. Caicedo
65'
R. Palacio← O. Okwonkwo
67'
M. Parolo← J. Correa
74'
J. Lukaku← S. Milinković-Savić
81'
Rodrigo Palacio
83'
M. Destro← A. Poli
89'
S. Lulić↳ Luiz Felipe

Possession

38%Bologna

Shots

7Bologna

Pass accuracy

48%Bologna

Statistics

BolognaLazio
Overview
38%Possession62%
7Total Shots18
1Corners7
17Fouls19
Shots
7Total Shots18
3On Target5
3Off Target5
1Blocked8
2Inside Box13
5Outside Box5
Passing
38%Possession62%
384Total Passes612
298Accurate Passes517
78%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
17Fouls19
2Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Offsides4

Match Recap: Bologna vs Lazio

Lazio beat Bologna 2-0 in Serie A on December 26, 2018.

Goals: Luiz Felipe (30'), S. Lulić (89').

Lazio controlled possession (62%) and registered 18 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna.