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Bologna vs Genoa — Serie A 2018

Bologna
Bologna
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Genoa
Genoa
9/21/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 5Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Bologna43%
×Draw27%
Genoa30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bologna
1.37
Genoa
1.08

Bologna creates 27% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

creates per match

Bologna
1.27
Genoa
1.04

allows per match

Bologna
1.13
Genoa
1.47

finishing

Bologna-0.12scores less
Genoa-0.11scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna ↓

Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bologna or draw
70%
Bologna or Genoa
73%
Draw or Genoa
57%

Winning margin

Bologna wins by 2+
20%
Genoa wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bologna 1+ goals
75%
Bologna 2+ goals
40%
Bologna 3+ goals
16%
Genoa 1+ goals
66%
Genoa 2+ goals
29%
Genoa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bologna (draw refunded)
59%
Genoa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.13 · 27 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna attack 1.27 + Genoa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.37

Genoa attack 1.04 + Bologna defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bologna scores more
43%
level
27%
Genoa scores more
30%

Bologna at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bologna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bologna 2 – 2 Genoa

Bologna and Genoa drew 2-2 in Serie A on September 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna.