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Bologna vs Cagliari — Serie A 2026

Bologna
Bologna
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Cagliari
Cagliari
10/31/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 6Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Bologna48%
×Draw26%
Cagliari26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bologna
1.49
Cagliari
1.03

Bologna creates 45% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 25 away

creates per match

Bologna
1.31
Cagliari
0.95

allows per match

Bologna
1.11
Cagliari
1.67

finishing

Bologna-0.13scores less
Cagliari-0.03on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna ↓

Cagliari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Bologna or draw
74%
Bologna or Cagliari
74%
Draw or Cagliari
52%

Winning margin

Bologna wins by 2+
24%
Cagliari wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bologna 1+ goals
77%
Bologna 2+ goals
44%
Bologna 3+ goals
19%
Cagliari 1+ goals
64%
Cagliari 2+ goals
28%
Cagliari 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bologna (draw refunded)
65%
Cagliari (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.11 · 28 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna attack 1.31 + Cagliari defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

Cagliari attack 0.95 + Bologna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bologna scores more
48%
level
26%
Cagliari scores more
26%

Bologna at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bologna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bologna vs Cagliari

Bologna beat Cagliari 3-2 in Serie A on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna.