Bologna 1–2 Atalanta: Result & Stats | Serie A

Bologna

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Atalanta

I. M'baye 3'

D. Zapata 70'

G. Mancini 57'

11/4/2018

Serie A · Round 11Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

Bologna38%

×Draw27%

Atalanta35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BolognaExpected goals in this matchAtalanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.20

Bologna

1.27

Atalanta

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

1.31

creates per match

1.29

1.11

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Bologna

1.31

Atalanta

1.29

allows per match

Bologna

1.11

Atalanta

1.23

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Bologna-0.15scores less

Atalanta+0.03on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna ↓

Atalanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Bologna or draw

65%

Bologna or Atalanta

73%

Draw or Atalanta

62%

Winning margin

Bologna wins by 2+

17%

Atalanta wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Bologna 1+ goals

72%

Bologna 2+ goals

36%

Bologna 3+ goals

14%

Atalanta 1+ goals

70%

Atalanta 2+ goals

34%

Atalanta 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Bologna (draw refunded)

52%

Atalanta (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.11 · 31 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna attack 1.31 + Atalanta defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

Atalanta attack 1.29 + Bologna defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bologna scores more

38%

level

27%

Atalanta scores more

35%

Bologna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bologna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

F. Santander

Bologna · F

8.1

Match Events

3'

I. M'baye↳ F. Santander

24'

41'

46'

47'

57'

64'

70'

73'

R. Orsolini← L. Krejčí

82'

M. Pašalić← J. Iličić

83'

M. Destro← M. Svanberg

88'

E. Rigoni← A. Gómez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BolognaAtalanta

Overview

32%Possession68%

11Total Shots23

1Corners4

7Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots23

4On Target5

4Off Target10

3Blocked8

9Inside Box14

2Outside Box9

Passing

32%Possession68%

319Total Passes658

231Accurate Passes573

72%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

7Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides1

Serie A: Bologna 1–2 Atalanta

Atalanta beat Bologna 2-1 in Serie A on November 4, 2018.

Goals: I. M'baye (3'), G. Mancini (57'), D. Zapata (70').

Atalanta controlled possession (68%) and registered 23 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna.

Bologna vs Atalanta — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Bologna 1–2 Atalanta