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Bologna U20 vs Cesena U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Bologna U20
Bologna U20
Preview
10:00
Cesena U20
Cesena U20
12/19/2026Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 16Centro Sportivo Crespellano
40%
Bologna U20
model favours
40%23%37%

Bologna U20 win just 21% against the top half (vs 49% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
66%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Bologna U2040%
×Draw23%
Cesena U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bologna U20
1.69
Cesena U20
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

creates per match

Bologna U20
1.56
Cesena U20
1.74

allows per match

Bologna U20
1.51
Cesena U20
1.82

finishing

Bologna U20+0.00on par
Cesena U20+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna U20 ↓

Cesena U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bologna U20 or draw
63%
Bologna U20 or Cesena U20
77%
Draw or Cesena U20
60%

Winning margin

Bologna U20 wins by 2+
20%
Cesena U20 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Bologna U20 1+ goals
82%
Bologna U20 2+ goals
50%
Bologna U20 3+ goals
24%
Cesena U20 1+ goals
80%
Cesena U20 2+ goals
48%
Cesena U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Bologna U20 (draw refunded)
52%
Cesena U20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna U20 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.51 · 39 matches

Cesena U20 away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.82 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna U20 attack 1.56 + Cesena U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.69

Cesena U20 attack 1.74 + Bologna U20 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bologna U20 scores more
40%
level
23%
Cesena U20 scores more
37%

Bologna U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bologna U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Cesena U20 win just 24% against the top half (vs 68% against the bottom)
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
LWWDW
U20
LWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bologna U20 face Cesena U20 (Campionato Primavera - 1)

Campionato Primavera - 1 returns with Bologna U20 hosting Cesena U20. Match starts December 19, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bologna U20 host Cesena U20 at Centro Sportivo Crespellano.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.