Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Bologna U20 vs Cagliari U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Bologna U20
Bologna U20
Preview
10:00
Cagliari U20
Cagliari U20
3/20/2027Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 30Centro Sportivo Crespellano
44%
Bologna U20
model favours
44%24%31%

Bologna U20 sit 5, Cagliari U20 18 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Bologna U2044%
×Draw24%
Cagliari U2031%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bologna U20
1.63
Cagliari U20
1.33

Bologna U20 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 39 away

creates per match

Bologna U20
1.56
Cagliari U20
1.15

allows per match

Bologna U20
1.51
Cagliari U20
1.69

finishing

Bologna U20+0.00on par
Cagliari U20+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bologna U20 ↓

Cagliari U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Bologna U20 or draw
69%
Bologna U20 or Cagliari U20
76%
Draw or Cagliari U20
56%

Winning margin

Bologna U20 wins by 2+
23%
Cagliari U20 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Bologna U20 1+ goals
80%
Bologna U20 2+ goals
48%
Bologna U20 3+ goals
22%
Cagliari U20 1+ goals
74%
Cagliari U20 2+ goals
38%
Cagliari U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Bologna U20 (draw refunded)
59%
Cagliari U20 (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bologna U20 at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.51 · 39 matches

Cagliari U20 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.69 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bologna U20 attack 1.56 + Cagliari U20 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.63

Cagliari U20 attack 1.15 + Bologna U20 defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bologna U20 scores more
44%
level
24%
Cagliari U20 scores more
31%

Bologna U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bologna U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
LWWDW
U20
WDDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bologna U20 vs Cagliari U20 — Match Preview

Bologna U20 face Cagliari U20 on March 20, 2027 in this Campionato Primavera - 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bologna U20 host Cagliari U20 at Centro Sportivo Crespellano.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.