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Bollullos vs Conil — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Bollullos
Bollullos
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Conil
Conil
11/6/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 9Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Bollullos50%
×Draw27%
Conil24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bollullos
1.46
Conil
0.91

Bollullos creates 60% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 111 away

creates per match

Bollullos
1.31
Conil
0.81

allows per match

Bollullos
1.00
Conil
1.60

finishing

Bollullos+0.00on par
Conil+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bollullos ↓

Conil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bollullos or draw
76%
Bollullos or Conil
73%
Draw or Conil
50%

Winning margin

Bollullos wins by 2+
25%
Conil wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bollullos 1+ goals
77%
Bollullos 2+ goals
43%
Bollullos 3+ goals
18%
Conil 1+ goals
60%
Conil 2+ goals
23%
Conil 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Bollullos (draw refunded)
68%
Conil (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bollullos at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.00 · 67 matches

Conil away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.60 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bollullos attack 1.31 + Conil defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.46

Conil attack 0.81 + Bollullos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Bollullos scores more
50%
level
27%
Conil scores more
24%

Bollullos at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Bollullos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bollullos vs Conil

Bollullos and Conil drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on November 6, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Eloy Ávila Cano Bollullos in Bollullos Par del Condado.