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Bolívar vs Nueva Esparta — Segunda División 2018

Bolívar
Bolívar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nueva Esparta
Nueva Esparta
8/10/2023Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 5CTE Cachamay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Bolívar53%
×Draw28%
Nueva Esparta20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
1.40
Nueva Esparta
0.74

Bolívar creates 89% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 38 away

creates per match

Bolívar
1.38
Nueva Esparta
0.58

allows per match

Bolívar
0.91
Nueva Esparta
1.42

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Nueva Esparta+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Nueva Esparta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
80%
Bolívar or Nueva Esparta
72%
Draw or Nueva Esparta
47%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
26%
Nueva Esparta wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
75%
Bolívar 2+ goals
41%
Bolívar 3+ goals
17%
Nueva Esparta 1+ goals
52%
Nueva Esparta 2+ goals
17%
Nueva Esparta 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
73%
Nueva Esparta (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 56 matches

Nueva Esparta away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.42 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 1.38 + Nueva Esparta defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Nueva Esparta attack 0.58 + Bolívar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bolívar scores more
53%
level
28%
Nueva Esparta scores more
20%

Bolívar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Bolívar 0–0 Nueva Esparta

Bolívar and Nueva Esparta drew 0-0 in Segunda División on August 10, 2023.

The match was played at CTE Cachamay in Ciudad Guayana.