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Bolívar vs Minervén — Segunda División 2018

Bolívar
Bolívar
PST
19:00
Minervén
Minervén
6/12/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 5Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bolívar74%
×Draw17%
Minervén10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
2.36
Minervén
0.72

Bolívar creates 228% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

creates per match

Bolívar
0.94
Minervén
0.67

allows per match

Bolívar
0.76
Minervén
3.78

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Minervén+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Minervén →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
90%
Bolívar or Minervén
83%
Draw or Minervén
26%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
50%
Minervén wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
90%
Bolívar 2+ goals
68%
Bolívar 3+ goals
41%
Minervén 1+ goals
51%
Minervén 2+ goals
16%
Minervén 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
88%
Minervén (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.76 · 17 matches

Minervén away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 0.94 + Minervén defence 3.78 → ÷2 → 2.36

Minervén attack 0.67 + Bolívar defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Bolívar scores more
74%
level
17%
Minervén scores more
10%

Bolívar at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bolívar vs Minervén — Match Preview

Bolívar face Minervén on June 12, 2021 in this Segunda División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Bolívar host Minervén at Estadio Ricardo Tulio Maya.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.