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Bolívar vs Mineros de Guyana — Segunda División 2018

Bolívar
Bolívar
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mineros de Guyana
Mineros de Guyana
5/14/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 8Estadio Decanato UDO Bolívar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Bolívar51%
×Draw28%
Mineros de Guyana21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
1.38
Mineros de Guyana
0.77

Bolívar creates 79% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 21 away

creates per match

Bolívar
1.38
Mineros de Guyana
0.62

allows per match

Bolívar
0.91
Mineros de Guyana
1.38

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Mineros de Guyana+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Mineros de Guyana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
79%
Bolívar or Mineros de Guyana
72%
Draw or Mineros de Guyana
49%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
25%
Mineros de Guyana wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
75%
Bolívar 2+ goals
40%
Bolívar 3+ goals
16%
Mineros de Guyana 1+ goals
54%
Mineros de Guyana 2+ goals
18%
Mineros de Guyana 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
71%
Mineros de Guyana (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 56 matches

Mineros de Guyana away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 1.38 + Mineros de Guyana defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

Mineros de Guyana attack 0.62 + Bolívar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bolívar scores more
51%
level
28%
Mineros de Guyana scores more
21%

Bolívar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bolívar vs Mineros de Guyana

Bolívar and Mineros de Guyana drew 1-1 in Segunda División on May 14, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Decanato UDO Bolívar in Bolívar.