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Bolívar vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz — Segunda División 2018

Bolívar
Bolívar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
10/9/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Clausura - 12Estadio Decanato UDO Bolívar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Bolívar47%
×Draw27%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bolívar
1.39
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
0.95

Bolívar creates 46% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 84 away

creates per match

Bolívar
1.38
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
0.99

allows per match

Bolívar
0.91
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
1.40

finishing

Bolívar+0.00on par
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bolívar ↓

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bolívar or draw
74%
Bolívar or Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
73%
Draw or Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz
53%

Winning margin

Bolívar wins by 2+
23%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bolívar 1+ goals
75%
Bolívar 2+ goals
40%
Bolívar 3+ goals
16%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 1+ goals
61%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 2+ goals
25%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bolívar (draw refunded)
65%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bolívar at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.91 · 56 matches

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.40 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bolívar attack 1.38 + Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.39

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz attack 0.99 + Bolívar defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bolívar scores more
47%
level
27%
Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz scores more
26%

Bolívar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bolívar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bolívar vs Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz

Dinamo de Puerto La Cruz beat Bolívar 1-0 in Segunda División on October 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Decanato UDO Bolívar in Bolívar.