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Bohemians vs Shelbourne — Premier Division 2026

Bohemians
Bohemians
Preview
18:45
Shelbourne
Shelbourne
10/23/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 35Dalymount Park
Big match
44%
Bohemians
model favours
44%27%28%

Bohemians are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Bohemians44%
×Draw27%
Shelbourne28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bohemians
1.35
Shelbourne
1.02

Bohemians creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Bohemians
1.25
Shelbourne
1.39

allows per match

Bohemians
0.66
Shelbourne
1.45

finishing

Bohemians-0.25scores less
Shelbourne+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under: 58Over: 4258%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians ↓

Shelbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bohemians or draw
72%
Bohemians or Shelbourne
73%
Draw or Shelbourne
56%

Winning margin

Bohemians wins by 2+
21%
Shelbourne wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bohemians 1+ goals
74%
Bohemians 2+ goals
39%
Bohemians 3+ goals
15%
Shelbourne 1+ goals
64%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
27%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bohemians (draw refunded)
61%
Shelbourne (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.66 · 6 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.45 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians attack 1.25 + Shelbourne defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Shelbourne attack 1.39 + Bohemians defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bohemians scores more
44%
level
27%
Shelbourne scores more
28%

Bohemians at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bohemians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Shelbourne are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Even after scoring first, Shelbourne win only 41%
  • Both teams score in 70% of Shelbourne’s matches
  • Style contrast — Bohemians play Possession-dominant, Shelbourne Attack-heavy
  • Bohemians matches are rarely goalless — only 3.7% end 0-0
  • 35% of Bohemians’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bohemians
Possession-dominant
Shelbourne
Attack-heavy
57%Possession56%
76%Pass accuracy80%
15.7Shots14.3
1.54xGBiggest gap1.73
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BohemiansShelbourne

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

2
Bohemians
6
Draws
2
Shelbourne
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 60%
3–02–20–02–22–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bohemians
WDDWW
Shelbourne
WDDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Bohemians host Shelbourne

October 23, 2026: Bohemians take on Shelbourne in Premier Division. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Bohemians host Shelbourne at Dalymount Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.