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Bohemians vs Derry City — Premier Division 2025

Bohemians
Bohemians
Preview
18:45
Derry City
Derry City
8/21/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 28Dalymount Park
Big match
42%
Bohemians
model favours
42%28%31%

Bohemians are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Bohemians42%
×Draw28%
Derry City31%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bohemians
1.30
Derry City
1.08

Bohemians creates 20% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 31 away

creates per match

Bohemians
1.42
Derry City
1.10

allows per match

Bohemians
1.06
Derry City
1.19

finishing

Bohemians+0.00on par
Derry City+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians ↓

Derry City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bohemians or draw
69%
Bohemians or Derry City
72%
Draw or Derry City
58%

Winning margin

Bohemians wins by 2+
19%
Derry City wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bohemians 1+ goals
73%
Bohemians 2+ goals
37%
Bohemians 3+ goals
14%
Derry City 1+ goals
66%
Derry City 2+ goals
29%
Derry City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bohemians (draw refunded)
57%
Derry City (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.06 · 31 matches

Derry City away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.19 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians attack 1.42 + Derry City defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.30

Derry City attack 1.10 + Bohemians defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bohemians scores more
42%
level
28%
Derry City scores more
31%

Bohemians at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bohemians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Derry City have scored in 8 games running
  • Both teams score in 71% of Derry City’s matches
  • Even after scoring first, Derry City win only 50%
  • Style contrast — Bohemians play Possession-dominant, Derry City Defensively solid
  • Bohemians matches are rarely goalless — only 3.8% end 0-0
  • 38% of Derry City’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Bohemians
Possession-dominant
Derry City
Defensively solid
58%Possession54%
77%Pass accuracy73%
15.2ShotsBiggest gap12.5
1.61xG1.34
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BohemiansDerry City

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

2
Bohemians
2
Draws
3
Derry City
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 57%
1–41–11–03–41–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Bohemians
DWWWW
City
LLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bohemians face Derry City (Premier Division)

Premier Division returns with Bohemians hosting Derry City. Match starts August 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bohemians host Derry City at Dalymount Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.