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Bohemians vs Derry City — Premier Division 2019

Bohemians
Bohemians
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Derry City
Derry City
3/15/2024Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 6Dalymount Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Bohemians40%
×Draw27%
Derry City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bohemians
1.31
Derry City
1.16

Bohemians creates 13% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 129 away

creates per match

Bohemians
1.61
Derry City
1.19

allows per match

Bohemians
1.12
Derry City
1.02

finishing

Bohemians+0.00on par
Derry City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bohemians ↓

Derry City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bohemians or draw
67%
Bohemians or Derry City
73%
Draw or Derry City
60%

Winning margin

Bohemians wins by 2+
18%
Derry City wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bohemians 1+ goals
73%
Bohemians 2+ goals
38%
Bohemians 3+ goals
14%
Derry City 1+ goals
69%
Derry City 2+ goals
32%
Derry City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Bohemians (draw refunded)
55%
Derry City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bohemians at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.12 · 129 matches

Derry City away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bohemians attack 1.61 + Derry City defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.31

Derry City attack 1.19 + Bohemians defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Bohemians scores more
40%
level
27%
Derry City scores more
33%

Bohemians at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Bohemians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Division: Bohemians 2–1 Derry City

Bohemians beat Derry City 2-1 in Premier Division on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Dalymount Park in Dublin.