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Bogota FC vs Valledupar — Primera B 2018

Bogota FC
Bogota FC
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Valledupar
Valledupar
5/12/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 14Estadio Metropolitano de Techo (Bogotá, D.C.)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Bogota FC44%
×Draw27%
Valledupar29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bogota FC
1.38
Valledupar
1.07

Bogota FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 89 away

creates per match

Bogota FC
1.29
Valledupar
0.87

allows per match

Bogota FC
1.28
Valledupar
1.46

finishing

Bogota FC+0.00on par
Valledupar+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bogota FC ↓

Valledupar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bogota FC or draw
71%
Bogota FC or Valledupar
73%
Draw or Valledupar
56%

Winning margin

Bogota FC wins by 2+
21%
Valledupar wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bogota FC 1+ goals
75%
Bogota FC 2+ goals
40%
Bogota FC 3+ goals
16%
Valledupar 1+ goals
66%
Valledupar 2+ goals
29%
Valledupar 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Bogota FC (draw refunded)
60%
Valledupar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bogota FC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.28 · 139 matches

Valledupar away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bogota FC attack 1.29 + Valledupar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Valledupar attack 0.87 + Bogota FC defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bogota FC scores more
44%
level
27%
Valledupar scores more
29%

Bogota FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bogota FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B: Bogota FC 0–3 Valledupar

Valledupar beat Bogota FC 3-0 in Primera B on May 12, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo (Bogotá, D.C.).