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Boeun Sangmu W vs Seoul W — WK-League 2026

Boeun Sangmu W
Boeun Sangmu W
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Seoul W
Seoul W
9/27/2022WK-LeagueWK-League · Round 1Boeun Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Boeun Sangmu W41%
×Draw25%
Seoul W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boeun Sangmu W
1.48
Seoul W
1.32

Boeun Sangmu W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 81 away

creates per match

Boeun Sangmu W
0.95
Seoul W
1.07

allows per match

Boeun Sangmu W
1.57
Seoul W
2.01

finishing

Boeun Sangmu W+0.00on par
Seoul W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boeun Sangmu W ↓

Seoul W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Boeun Sangmu W or draw
66%
Boeun Sangmu W or Seoul W
75%
Draw or Seoul W
59%

Winning margin

Boeun Sangmu W wins by 2+
20%
Seoul W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Boeun Sangmu W 1+ goals
77%
Boeun Sangmu W 2+ goals
43%
Boeun Sangmu W 3+ goals
19%
Seoul W 1+ goals
73%
Seoul W 2+ goals
38%
Seoul W 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Boeun Sangmu W (draw refunded)
55%
Seoul W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boeun Sangmu W at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

Seoul W away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.01 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boeun Sangmu W attack 0.95 + Seoul W defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.48

Seoul W attack 1.07 + Boeun Sangmu W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Boeun Sangmu W scores more
41%
level
25%
Seoul W scores more
34%

Boeun Sangmu W at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Boeun Sangmu W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

WK-League: Boeun Sangmu W 2–4 Seoul W

Seoul W beat Boeun Sangmu W 4-2 in WK-League on September 27, 2022.

The match was played at Boeun Stadium in Boeun.