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Boeun Sangmu W vs Hwacheon KSPO W — WK-League 2026

Boeun Sangmu W
Boeun Sangmu W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Hwacheon KSPO W
Hwacheon KSPO W
4/21/2023WK-LeagueWK-League · Round 6Mungyeong Public Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Boeun Sangmu W26%
×Draw26%
Hwacheon KSPO W49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boeun Sangmu W
1.04
Hwacheon KSPO W
1.53

Hwacheon KSPO W creates 47% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 78 away

creates per match

Boeun Sangmu W
0.95
Hwacheon KSPO W
1.49

allows per match

Boeun Sangmu W
1.57
Hwacheon KSPO W
1.13

finishing

Boeun Sangmu W+0.00on par
Hwacheon KSPO W+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boeun Sangmu W ↓

Hwacheon KSPO W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Boeun Sangmu W or draw
51%
Boeun Sangmu W or Hwacheon KSPO W
74%
Draw or Hwacheon KSPO W
74%

Winning margin

Boeun Sangmu W wins by 2+
10%
Hwacheon KSPO W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Boeun Sangmu W 1+ goals
65%
Boeun Sangmu W 2+ goals
28%
Boeun Sangmu W 3+ goals
9%
Hwacheon KSPO W 1+ goals
78%
Hwacheon KSPO W 2+ goals
45%
Hwacheon KSPO W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Boeun Sangmu W (draw refunded)
35%
Hwacheon KSPO W (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boeun Sangmu W at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

Hwacheon KSPO W away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.13 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boeun Sangmu W attack 0.95 + Hwacheon KSPO W defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.04

Hwacheon KSPO W attack 1.49 + Boeun Sangmu W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Boeun Sangmu W scores more
26%
level
26%
Hwacheon KSPO W scores more
49%

Hwacheon KSPO W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hwacheon KSPO W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boeun Sangmu W vs Hwacheon KSPO W

Hwacheon KSPO W beat Boeun Sangmu W 3-0 in WK-League on April 21, 2023.

The match was played at Mungyeong Public Stadium in Mungyeong.