Boeun Sangmu W 2–1 Changnyeong W: Result & Stats

Boeun Sangmu W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Changnyeong W

4/18/2023

WK-League · Round 5Mungyeong Public Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Boeun Sangmu W45%

×Draw25%

Changnyeong W30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Boeun Sangmu WExpected goals in this matchChangnyeong W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.24

Boeun Sangmu W

1.58

Changnyeong W

1.24

Boeun Sangmu W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 79 away

0.95

creates per match

0.91

1.57

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Boeun Sangmu W

0.95

Changnyeong W

0.91

allows per match

Boeun Sangmu W

1.57

Changnyeong W

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boeun Sangmu W+0.00on par

Changnyeong W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boeun Sangmu W ↓

Changnyeong W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Boeun Sangmu W or draw

70%

Boeun Sangmu W or Changnyeong W

75%

Draw or Changnyeong W

55%

Winning margin

Boeun Sangmu W wins by 2+

23%

Changnyeong W wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Boeun Sangmu W 1+ goals

79%

Boeun Sangmu W 2+ goals

47%

Boeun Sangmu W 3+ goals

21%

Changnyeong W 1+ goals

71%

Changnyeong W 2+ goals

35%

Changnyeong W 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Boeun Sangmu W (draw refunded)

60%

Changnyeong W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boeun Sangmu W at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.57 · 77 matches

Changnyeong W away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.20 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boeun Sangmu W attack 0.95 + Changnyeong W defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.58

Changnyeong W attack 0.91 + Boeun Sangmu W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Boeun Sangmu W scores more

45%

level

25%

Changnyeong W scores more

30%

Boeun Sangmu W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Boeun Sangmu W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff