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Bodo/Glimt vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Bodo/Glimt
Bodo/Glimt
CANC
00:00
Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
9/11/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 21Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Bodo/Glimt68%
×Draw18%
Stromsgodset14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bodo/Glimt
2.31
Stromsgodset
0.93

Bodo/Glimt creates 148% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bodo/Glimt
2.55
Stromsgodset
1.06

allows per match

Bodo/Glimt
0.80
Stromsgodset
2.08

finishing

Bodo/Glimt+0.42scores more
Stromsgodset+0.02on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodo/Glimt ↓

Stromsgodset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Bodo/Glimt or draw
86%
Bodo/Glimt or Stromsgodset
82%
Draw or Stromsgodset
32%

Winning margin

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+
45%
Stromsgodset wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals
90%
Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals
67%
Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals
40%
Stromsgodset 1+ goals
61%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
24%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)
83%
Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodo/Glimt at home — creates 2.55, concedes 0.80 · 38 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.55 + Stromsgodset defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.31

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + Bodo/Glimt defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bodo/Glimt scores more
68%
level
18%
Stromsgodset scores more
14%

Bodo/Glimt at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bodo/Glimt face Stromsgodset (Eliteserien)

Eliteserien returns with Bodo/Glimt hosting Stromsgodset. Match starts September 11, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bodo/Glimt host Stromsgodset at Aspmyra Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.