Bodo/Glimt 3–2 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Bodo/Glimt

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Stromsgodset

J. Hauge 67'

N. Gunnarsson 28' (OG)

P. Zinckernagel 12'

K. Tokstad 66'

M. Mawa 13'

8/2/2020

Eliteserien · Round 12Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Bodo/Glimt68%

×Draw18%

Stromsgodset14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodo/GlimtExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

0.93

Bodo/Glimt

2.31

Stromsgodset

0.93

Bodo/Glimt creates 148% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 36 away

2.55

creates per match

1.06

0.80

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Bodo/Glimt

2.55

Stromsgodset

1.06

allows per match

Bodo/Glimt

0.80

Stromsgodset

2.08

+0.42scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Bodo/Glimt+0.42scores more

Stromsgodset+0.02on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodo/Glimt ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Bodo/Glimt or draw

86%

Bodo/Glimt or Stromsgodset

82%

Draw or Stromsgodset

32%

Winning margin

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

45%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

90%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

67%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

40%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

61%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

24%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

83%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodo/Glimt at home — creates 2.55, concedes 0.80 · 38 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.55 + Stromsgodset defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.31

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + Bodo/Glimt defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bodo/Glimt scores more

68%

level

18%

Stromsgodset scores more

14%

Bodo/Glimt at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

K. Tokstad

Stromsgodset · F

8.4

Match Events

12'

P. Zinckernagel↳ U. Saltnes

13'

M. Mawa↳ K. Tokstad

15'

M. Høibråten← B. Moe

24'

Johan Hove

28'

N. GunnarssonOwn goal

39'

A. Foosnæs← F. Bjørkan

66'

K. Tokstad↳ M. Maigaard

67'

J. Hauge↳ S. Fet

69'

Nicholas Mickelson

74'

M. Mølvadgaard← J. Hove

83'

V. Boniface← K. Junker

83'

O. Sveen← P. Zinckernagel

84'

Victor Okoh Boniface

90'

Moses Dramwi Mawa

90+2'

H. Stenevik← K. Tokstad

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bodo/GlimtStromsgodset

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots21

3Corners13

10Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots21

6On Target9

4Off Target6

1Blocked6

9Inside Box16

2Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

411Total Passes392

308Accurate Passes322

75%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

7Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls15

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides3