Bodo/Glimt 2–1 Haugesund: Result & Stats

Bodo/Glimt

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Haugesund

S. Sørli 56'

F. Moumbagna 46'

Bruno Leite 3'

7/16/2023

Eliteserien · Round 14Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Bodo/Glimt70%

×Draw17%

Haugesund13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodo/GlimtExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

0.94

Bodo/Glimt

2.46

Haugesund

0.94

Bodo/Glimt creates 162% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 30 away

2.55

creates per match

1.07

0.80

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Bodo/Glimt

2.55

Haugesund

1.07

allows per match

Bodo/Glimt

0.80

Haugesund

2.36

+0.45scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Bodo/Glimt+0.45scores more

Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodo/Glimt ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Bodo/Glimt or draw

87%

Bodo/Glimt or Haugesund

83%

Draw or Haugesund

30%

Winning margin

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

48%

Haugesund wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

91%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

70%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

44%

Haugesund 1+ goals

61%

Haugesund 2+ goals

24%

Haugesund 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

85%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodo/Glimt at home — creates 2.55, concedes 0.80 · 37 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.55 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.46

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Bodo/Glimt defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Bodo/Glimt scores more

70%

level

17%

Haugesund scores more

13%

Bodo/Glimt at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

A. Pellegrino

Bodo/Glimt · F

8.3

Match Events

3'

Bruno Leite↳ A. Pajaziti

13'

Odin Luras Bjortuft

46'

S. Fet← U. Saltnes

46'

F. Moumbagna↳ A. Pellegrino

56'

S. Sørli

65'

J. Eskesen← Bruno Leite

65'

M. Samuelsen← A. Pajaziti

79'

Martin SamuelsenGoal cancelled

90'

O. Elabdellaoui← S. Sørli

90+4'

A. Sørensen← A. Pellegrino

90+5'

R. Espejord← F. Moumbagna

90+5'

O. Otusanya← S. Diarra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bodo/GlimtHaugesund

Overview

59%Possession41%

24Total Shots9

2.45Expected Goals (xG)0.77

7Corners3

11Fouls8

Shots

24Total Shots9

11On Target3

7Off Target2

6Blocked4

17Inside Box5

7Outside Box4

Passing

59%Possession41%

584Total Passes406

504Accurate Passes326

86%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

Discipline

11Fouls8

1Yellow Cards0

1Offsides2