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Bodø / Glimt W vs Rosenborg W — Toppserien 2021

Bodø / Glimt W
Bodø / Glimt W
Preview
14:00
Rosenborg W
Rosenborg W
11/7/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 22Aspmyra Stadion
67%
Rosenborg W
model favours
14%19%67%

Rosenborg W are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

0–2
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bodø / Glimt W14%
×Draw19%
Rosenborg W67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bodø / Glimt W
0.90
Rosenborg W
2.24

Rosenborg W creates 149% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 66 away

creates per match

Bodø / Glimt W
0.65
Rosenborg W
1.83

allows per match

Bodø / Glimt W
2.65
Rosenborg W
1.15

finishing

Bodø / Glimt W+0.00on par
Rosenborg W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodø / Glimt W ↓

Rosenborg W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Bodø / Glimt W or draw
33%
Bodø / Glimt W or Rosenborg W
81%
Draw or Rosenborg W
86%

Winning margin

Bodø / Glimt W wins by 2+
4%
Rosenborg W wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Bodø / Glimt W 1+ goals
59%
Bodø / Glimt W 2+ goals
23%
Bodø / Glimt W 3+ goals
6%
Rosenborg W 1+ goals
89%
Rosenborg W 2+ goals
65%
Rosenborg W 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Bodø / Glimt W (draw refunded)
17%
Rosenborg W (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodø / Glimt W at home — creates 0.65, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Rosenborg W away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.15 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodø / Glimt W attack 0.65 + Rosenborg W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.90

Rosenborg W attack 1.83 + Bodø / Glimt W defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Bodø / Glimt W scores more
14%
level
19%
Rosenborg W scores more
67%

Rosenborg W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Rosenborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Rosenborg W have scored in 11 games running
  • Bodø / Glimt W score first in only 27% of matches
  • Rosenborg W score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (73% and 73% over 2.5)
  • Rosenborg W have won 4 of the last 4 meetings
  • 73% of Bodø / Glimt W’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LLLLL
W
WDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bodø / Glimt W face Rosenborg W (Toppserien)

Toppserien returns with Bodø / Glimt W hosting Rosenborg W. Match starts November 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Bodø / Glimt W host Rosenborg W at Aspmyra Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.