Bochum U19 3–1 Wuppertaler SV U19: Result & Stats

Bochum U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Wuppertaler SV U19

8/25/2019

U19 Bundesliga · Ovest - 4Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Bochum U1968%

×Draw17%

Wuppertaler SV U1915%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bochum U19Expected goals in this matchWuppertaler SV U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.09

Bochum U19

2.51

Wuppertaler SV U19

1.09

Bochum U19 creates 130% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 33 away

2.36

creates per match

0.79

1.39

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Bochum U19

2.36

Wuppertaler SV U19

0.79

allows per match

Bochum U19

1.39

Wuppertaler SV U19

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bochum U19+0.00on par

Wuppertaler SV U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bochum U19 ↓

Wuppertaler SV U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bochum U19 or draw

85%

Bochum U19 or Wuppertaler SV U19

83%

Draw or Wuppertaler SV U19

32%

Winning margin

Bochum U19 wins by 2+

46%

Wuppertaler SV U19 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Bochum U19 1+ goals

92%

Bochum U19 2+ goals

71%

Bochum U19 3+ goals

45%

Wuppertaler SV U19 1+ goals

66%

Wuppertaler SV U19 2+ goals

30%

Wuppertaler SV U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Wuppertaler SV U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bochum U19 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Wuppertaler SV U19 away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.67 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bochum U19 attack 2.36 + Wuppertaler SV U19 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.51

Wuppertaler SV U19 attack 0.79 + Bochum U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Bochum U19 scores more

68%

level

17%

Wuppertaler SV U19 scores more

15%

Bochum U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Bochum U19 3–1 Wuppertaler SV U19

Bochum U19 beat Wuppertaler SV U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on August 25, 2019.

The match was played at Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum in Bochum.

Bochum U19 vs Wuppertaler SV U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Bochum U19 3–1 Wuppertaler SV U19