Boavista vs Portimonense — Primeira Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 103+ matches
Boavista44%
Portimonense29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Boavista creates 29% more chances
Season form · 119 home / 103 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Boavista ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Boavista at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches
Portimonense away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Boavista attack 1.04 + Portimonense defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.39
Portimonense attack 0.87 + Boavista defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.08
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Boavista at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Boavista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Benfica
FC Porto
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Guimaraes
Moreirense
Rio AveBoavista
Belenenses
Santa ClaraPortimonense
Maritimo
Vitoria Setubal
Aves
Tondela
Chaves
Nacional
FeirenseIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Boavista host Portimonense on Sunday, 20 January 2019 at 17:30. The match is part of the Primeira Liga 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Boavista vs Portimonense
Portimonense beat Boavista 2-0 in Primeira Liga on January 20, 2019.
Goals: Wellington Carvalho (20', 78').
Boavista controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 12.
The match was played at Estádio do Bessa in Porto.