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Boavista vs Moreirense — Primeira Liga 2018

Boavista
Boavista
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Moreirense
Moreirense
6/6/2020Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 25Estádio do Bessa Século XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Boavista39%
×Draw28%
Moreirense34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boavista
1.24
Moreirense
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 119 home / 120 away

creates per match

Boavista
1.04
Moreirense
0.97

allows per match

Boavista
1.30
Moreirense
1.44

finishing

Boavista+0.00on par
Moreirense+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista ↓

Moreirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Boavista or draw
66%
Boavista or Moreirense
72%
Draw or Moreirense
61%

Winning margin

Boavista wins by 2+
17%
Moreirense wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Boavista 1+ goals
71%
Boavista 2+ goals
35%
Boavista 3+ goals
13%
Moreirense 1+ goals
68%
Moreirense 2+ goals
32%
Moreirense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Boavista (draw refunded)
53%
Moreirense (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

Moreirense away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista attack 1.04 + Moreirense defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.24

Moreirense attack 0.97 + Boavista defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Boavista scores more
39%
level
28%
Moreirense scores more
34%

Boavista at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Boavista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Boavista vs Moreirense

Moreirense beat Boavista 1-0 in Primeira Liga on June 6, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio do Bessa Século XXI in Porto.