Boavista 0–1 FC Porto: Result & Stats

Boavista

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Porto

11/10/2019

Primeira Liga · Round 11Estádio do Bessa Século XXI

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Boavista22%

×Draw25%

FC Porto52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BoavistaExpected goals in this matchFC Porto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.56

Boavista

0.92

FC Porto

1.56

FC Porto creates 70% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 136 away

1.04

creates per match

1.83

1.30

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Boavista

1.04

FC Porto

1.83

allows per match

Boavista

1.30

FC Porto

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Boavista+0.00on par

FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boavista ↓

FC Porto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Boavista or draw

48%

Boavista or FC Porto

75%

Draw or FC Porto

78%

Winning margin

Boavista wins by 2+

8%

FC Porto wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Boavista 1+ goals

60%

Boavista 2+ goals

23%

Boavista 3+ goals

7%

FC Porto 1+ goals

79%

FC Porto 2+ goals

46%

FC Porto 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Boavista (draw refunded)

30%

FC Porto (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boavista at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 119 matches

FC Porto away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.79 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boavista attack 1.04 + FC Porto defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.92

FC Porto attack 1.83 + Boavista defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Boavista scores more

22%

level

25%

FC Porto scores more

52%

FC Porto at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff